- GAD3’s latest April barometer for the ABC newspaper offers the following electoral estimates if a general election were to be held at this time.
The Popular Party would win 29.4% of the vote, with a range of 124 and 128 deputies. The PSOE would obtain between 96-100 seats and 25.3% of the vote cast. Next, the Vox party would reach a margin of 51 or 53 deputies, with an estimated 15.4% of the vote. United Podemos would have between 26 and 28 seats and 10.7% of the vote. Finally, Ciudadanos would accumulate 2.4% of the total Spanish vote with 1 seat.
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More detailed information on conclusions of the socio-political survey can be found at the following link: ABC
Fact sheet:
Universe: general population over 18 years of age and eligible to vote.
Scope: National.
Quotas: by sex, age and geographical area according to the distribution of the electoral roll.
Information collection procedure: Computer-assisted telephone interview (CATI, 50% mobile) and computer-assisted online interview (CAWI).
Sample size:1,000 interviews.
Sampling error: 3.2% (n= 1,000), for a confidence level of 95.5% (two sigmas) and under the worst-case scenario of P=Q=0.5 in the simple random sampling assumption.
Interview length:approximately 3 minutes.
Fieldwork dates:4 to 6 April 2022.
