- The latest July barometer by GAD3 for the newspaper ABC offers the following electoral estimates if a general election were to be held at this time.
The Popular Party would win 36.3% of the vote, with a range of 155 and 159 deputies. The PSOE would obtain 94-98 seats and 24.3% of the vote cast. Next, the Vox party would reach a margin of 37 or 39 deputies, with an estimated 13.6% of the vote. United Podemos would have between 16 and 18 seats and 8.9% of the vote. Finally, Ciudadanos would accumulate 1.1% of the total vote of Spaniards without winning any seats.
More detailed information on conclusions of the socio-political survey can be found at the following link: ABC
Universe: general population over 18 years of age and eligible to vote.
Quotas: by sex, age and geographical area according to the distribution of the electoral roll.
Information collection procedure: Computer assisted telephone interviewing (CATI) 496 interviews with landlines and 507 with mobiles.
Sample size:1,003 interviews.
Sampling error: 3.2% (n= 1,000), for a confidence level of 95.5% (two sigmas) and under the worst-case scenario of P=Q=0.5 in the simple random sampling assumption.
Interview length:approximately 3 minutes.
Fieldwork dates: 4 to 6 July 2022.