- The latest barometer of the month of September by GAD3 for the newspaper ABC offers the following electoral estimation if a general election was held today.
The Partido Popular would obtain 35,1% of the vote and between 147 and 151 deputies. The PSOE would secure between 104 and 108 deputies and 26,9% of the vote. Subsequently, Vox would obtain between 38 and 40 seats and 13,4% of the vote. Unidas Podemos would secure between 14 and 16 seats and 8,6% of the vote. Meanwhile, Ciudadanos would not obtain any representation.
More detailed information on conclusions of the socio-political survey can be found at the following link: ABC
Universe: general population over 18 years of age and eligible to vote.
Quotas: by sex, age and geographical area according to the distribution of the electoral roll.
Information collection procedure:Computer assisted telephone interviewing (CATI), 395 interviews with landlines and 605 with mobiles.
Sample size:1,000 interviews.
Sampling error: 3.2% (n= 1,000), for a confidence level of 95.5% (two sigmas) and under the worst-case scenario of P=Q=0.5 in the simple random sampling assumption.
Interview length:approximately 3 minutes.
Fieldwork dates: 6-9 of September, 2022.