- GAD3’s electoral survey for ABC and El Norte de Castilla on the elections to the Castile and Leon parliament on 13 February offers the following estimates:
The PP (Partido Popular) would win 36.1% of the vote and between 34 and 37 seats. PSOE would obtain 25-28 seats and 28.9% of the vote cast. Vox would obtain between 11-13 seats, with an estimated 15.1% of the vote. Ciudadanos would obtain between 0-1 seats and 4.3% of the vote. As for Unidas Podemos, they would obtain an estimated 7.4% of the vote and would win between 2-3 seats. In the case of Unión del Pueblo Leonés, would win 2 seats with an estimated 3.3% of the vote. Soria ¡Ya! would enter with 2 seats and 1.8% of the vote. Por Ávila would get 0.5% of the vote and, in the same line, España Vaciada would also get 0.5% of the estimated vote.
For more detailed information on the survey, please click on the following link: ABC
Universe: residents with the right to vote in Castilla y León
Scope: regional. (Autonomous Community.)
Quotas: provinces, sex and age groups according to polling station distribution.
Sample size: 1,000 interviews (505 mobile and 495 landline) distributed as follows
proportionally in each of the provinces according to the electoral census (INE).
Data collection procedure: computer-assisted telephone interview.
(CATI) mobile and landline phones.
Sampling error: 3.2% (N=1,089) for a confidence level of 95.5% (two sigmas) and in the
worst-case scenario of P=Q=0.5 under simple random sampling assumption
Interview length: 3 minutes.
Fieldwork dates: 31 January to 4 February 2022