- GAD3’s electoral survey for ABC and El Norte de Castilla on the elections to the Castilla y León parliament on 13 February offers the following estimates:
The Partido Popular would win 40.8% of the vote and between 38 and 39 seats. PSOEwould obtain 27-28 seats and 29.1% of the vote cast. Voxwould obtain 9 seats, with an estimated 13.1% of the vote. Ciudadanoswould get between 0-1 seats and 2.6% of the vote. United Podemoswould obtain 6% of the estimated vote and would win between 2-3 seats. In the case of Unión del Pueblo Leonés, would win between 2 seats with an estimated 2.9% of the vote. Por Ávila would get 0.5% of the vote and Soria ¡Ya! would enter with 1 seat and 0.8% of the vote. Pacma would not make it in, with 0.7% of the vote cast.
For more detailed information on the survey, please click on the following link: ABC
Universe: residents with the right to vote in Castilla y León
Scope: regional. (Autonomous Community.)
Quotas: provinces, sex and age groups according to polling station distribution.
Sample size:1,089 interviews (544 mobile and 545 fixed-line) distributed
proportionally in each of the provinces according to the electoral census (INE).
Data collection procedure: computer-assisted telephone interview.
(CATI) mobile and landline phones.
Sampling error: 3.0% (N=1,089) for a confidence level of 95.5% (two sigmas) and in the
worst-case scenario of P=Q=0.5 under simple random sampling assumption
Interview length: 3 minutes.
Fieldwork dates: 10 to 14 January 2022.