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General election vote and seat estimates
Faced with a possible scenario of general elections, the survey conducted by GAD3 for ABC reveals the following results: the PP would win 151 seats with 34.9% of the vote. In second place, the PSOE would obtain 109 seats and 27.3% of the votes. VOX would position itself as the third force, winning 44 deputies with 14.2% support. Finally, Sumar would obtain 11 seats with 6.9% of the votes.
Technical specifications
Universe: General population over 18 years of age with the right to vote.
Geographical scope: National.
Quotas: By sex, age and geographical scope according to the electoral census (INE).
Information collection procedure: Computer-assisted telephone interview (CATI) and computer-assisted online interview (CAWI).
Sample size: 1,035 interviews in total: 424 telephone interviews and 611 online interviews.
Sampling error: ±3.1% (n=1,035) for a confidence level of 95.5% (two sigmas) and under the worst-case scenario of P=Q=0.5 in the simple random sampling assumption.
Interview duration: 4 minutes.
Fieldwork dates: 16-23 January 2025.
Institute responsible for the study: GAD3.
