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Voting forecast and seats in the Andalusian regional elections
In the vote forecast published today, compiled by GAD3 for ABC in March 2026 ahead of the Andalusian regional elections scheduled for 17 May, the Partido Popular is placed as the leading party, set to win between 54 and 57 seats, with 43.6% of the vote. The PSOE would remain in second place, securing between 29 and 30 seats and 23.8% of the vote. For its part, Vox would consolidate its third position with between 14 and 15 seats and 13.6% of the vote. The line-up would be completed by Por Andalucía, with 5 seats and 6.7%, and Adelante Andalucía, which would secure between 4 and 5 seats with 6.1%.
Technical details:
Population and geographical scope: Regional level. Population aged 18 and over, resident in Andalusia.
Quotas: By gender and age, based on the distribution of the population by province (INE).
Data collection method: Computer-assisted telephone interviews (CATI); 685 interviews via mobile phones and 317 via landlines.
Sample size: 1,002 interviews.
Questionnaire: Proposed by ABC.
Sampling error: ±3.2% (n=1,002), for a confidence level of 95.5% (two standard deviations) and under the most unfavourable hypothesis of P=Q=0.5 in the case of simple random sampling.
Duration of the interview: approximately 4–5 minutes.
Fieldwork dates: 24–27 March 2026.
Institute: Gabinete de Análisis Demoscópico, S.L. (GAD3). C/ Alcalá 75 – 4th floor left, 28009 – Madrid
