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Vote and Seat Projection for the Andalusian Regional Elections
The voting projection prepared by GAD3 for ABC, corresponding to May 2026 ahead of the Andalusian regional elections scheduled for 17 May, places the People’s Party (PP) as the leading political force, with between 54 and 56 seats and 42.3% of the vote intention. The PSOE would retain second place, securing between 26 and 28 seats with support standing at 21.7%. Vox would consolidate its position in third place with between 15 and 17 seats and 14.6% of the vote. The distribution would be completed by Adelante Andalucía, with 6 seats and 7.9%, and Por Andalucía, which would obtain 5 representatives and 7.8% electoral support.
Download the survey microdata by clicking here.
Technical details:
Universe and geographical scope: Regional level. Population aged 18 and over, resident in Andalusia.
Quotas: By sex and age, according to the population distribution by province (INE).
Data collection procedure: Computer-assisted telephone interviews (CATI); 808 interviews on mobile phones and 334 on landlines.
Sample size: 1,142 interviews.
Questionnaire: Proposed by ABC.
Sampling error: ±3.0% (n=1,142), for a confidence level of 95.5% (two sigma) and under the most unfavourable assumption of P=Q=0.5, assuming simple random sampling.
Interview duration: Approximately 4–5 minutes.
Fieldwork dates: From 30 April to 7 May 2026.
Institute: Gabinete de Análisis Demoscópico, S.L. (GAD3).
