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Voting Intention and Seats in the Regional Elections in Castile and León
The latest GAD3 poll for ABC, published in March 2026 ahead of the regional elections in Castile and León on 15 March, gives victory to the Partido Popular. The party would secure between 33 and 34 seats and 34.8% of the vote. The PSOE would remain the second-largest force, with between 26 and 29 seats and 28.6% support. Vox would consolidate its third position with between 16 and 18 representatives and 19.5% of the vote.
The remaining seats would be distributed between Unión del Pueblo Leonés (UPL), with 3 seats and 5.4%, and SORIA ¡YA!, which would obtain 1 seat and 1.1%.
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Seat Allocation by Province: Ávila, Burgos, León, Palencia, Salamanca, Segovia, Soria, Valladolid and Zamora
Technical Details:
Universe: Residents in Castile and León with the right to vote.
Geographical scope: Regional (Castile and León).
Quotas: By sex and age. Non-proportional allocation by province.
Data collection procedure: Computer-assisted telephone interviewing (CATI).
Sample size: 1,002 interviews.
Questionnaire: Designed by the client and validated by GAD3.
Margin of error: ±3.2% (n = 1,002) at a 95% confidence level (two sigma), under the most unfavourable assumption of p = q = 0.5, assuming simple random sampling.
Interview duration: Less than 5 minutes.
Fieldwork dates: 2 to 4 March 2026.
Institute: Gabinete de Análisis Demoscópico, S.L. (GAD3). C/ Alcalá 75 – 4th floor left, 28009 – Madrid.
