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Estimated votes and seats in the general election.
Faced with a possible electoral scenario, the survey conducted by GAD3 for ABC during September 2025 indicates that the Popular Party would win 137 seats and 32% of the votes. The PSOE would obtain 107 seats with 26.9% of the vote, followed by Vox, which would win 61 seats with 17.9% of the vote. Sumar, meanwhile, would win 10 seats and 6.6% of the vote, followed by Podemos with 4 seats and 4% of the vote.
Technical specifications
Universe and geographical scope: National scope: General population over 18 years of age with the right to vote.
Quotas: By gender, age and geographical area based on the electoral roll (INE).
Information collection procedure: Computer-assisted telephone interview (CATI).
Sample size: 1,001 interviews.
Questionnaire: Prepared by GAD3 and validated by the client.
Sampling error: ±3.2% (n=1,001) for a confidence level of 95.5% (two sigmas) and in the most unfavourable hypothesis of P=Q=0.5 in the case of simple random sampling.
Duration of the interview: Approximately 4 minutes.
Fieldwork dates: 5 to 11 September.
Institute: Gabinete de Análisis Demoscópico, S.L. (GAD3). C/ Alcalá 75 – 4º izquierda, 28009 – Madrid
