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Vote and seat estimates for the Aragón regional elections
Ahead of the upcoming electoral scenario in Aragón on 8 February, the voting intention survey carried out by GAD3 for Hoy Aragón in January 2026 shows a clear lead for the Partido Popular (PP), which would secure 29 seats and 37% of the vote at regional level. The Partido Socialista (PSOE) would rank second with between 18 and 20 seats and 24.7% electoral support, while Vox would obtain between 11 and 12 seats with 15.1% of the vote. Chunta Aragonesista (CHA) would win between 3 and 4 seats with 6.7%, followed by Aragón Existe, with 2 to 3 seats and 4.4%, and IU-Sumar, which would secure between 1 and 2 representatives with 4.2% support.
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Estimates by constituency: Huesca, Teruel and Zaragoza
Regarding the distribution of seats by constituency, in the province of Huesca the Partido Popular would emerge as the leading force with 8 seats. Followed by the PSOE with 6 seats. Vox would obtain 3 representatives, while Chunta Aragonesista (CHA) would secure 1 seat.
In Teruel, the Partido Popular would obtain 6 seats, while the PSOE would range between 3 and 4 seats. Aragón Existe would secure between 2 and 3 representatives, and Vox would win 2 seats in this constituency.
Finally, in the province of Zaragoza, the Partido Popular (PP) would secure 15 seats, followed by the Socialist Party (PSOE) with between 9 and 10 seats. Vox would obtain between 6 and 7 seats, while Chunta Aragonesista (CHA) would win between 2 and 3 representatives, and IU–Sumar would secure between 1 and 2 seats.
Download the survey microdata by clicking here.
Technical details:
Universe and geographical scope: Residents in Aragón with the right to vote in regional elections.
Quotas: By sex and age. Non-proportional allocation by province: 300 interviews in Huesca, 300 in Teruel and 607 in Zaragoza.
Data collection method: Computer-assisted telephone interviews (CATI).
Sample size: 1,207 interviews.
Questionnaire: Proposed by Hoy Aragón.
Margin of error: ±2.9% (n = 1,207), with a confidence level of 95.5% (two standard deviations), under the most unfavourable assumption of P = Q = 0.5 and assuming simple random sampling.
Interview duration: Less than 5 minutes.
Fieldwork dates: From 12 to 20 January 2026.
Institute: Gabinete de Análisis Demoscópico, S.L. (GAD3) C/ Alcalá 75 – 4th floor, left, 28009 – Madrid
