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The GAD3 poll for Mediaset gives the following vote and seat estimates
The latest barometer for the month of November for Mediaset shows that the Popular Party would obtain between 147 and 153 seats and 36.3% of the support. The Socialist Party would then win between 108-114 seats and 28.8% of the vote. Sumar would have between 26-30 seats and 11.7% of the vote. Finally, Vox would obtain between 27 and 31 MPs and 11.6% of the vote.
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You can consult all the conclusions of the socio-political survey at the following link: Mediaset
Universe: general population over the age of 18 with the right to vote.
Scope: national.
Information collection procedure: computer-assisted online interview (CAWI).
Sample size: 1,008 interviews:
Daily sampling error: ± 1.2% (n= 6,501) for a confidence level of 95.5% (two sigmas) and under the worst-case scenario of P=Q=0.5 in the simple random sampling assumption.
Interview duration: 4-5 minutes.
Fieldwork dates: 16 November to 17 November 2023.
Estimation: Carried out by GAD3 (Calle Alcalá 75, 28009-Madrid).
