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Electoral forecast in the autonomous city of Melilla
The voting intention estimate prepared by GAD3 for May 2026 in the autonomous city of Melilla places the People’s Party (PP) as the leading political force, with 14 seats and 51.7% of the voting intention. The PSOE would retain second place, securing between 3 and 4 seats and 13.4% support. Coalition for Melilla would consolidate its position in third place with 3 seats and 11.4% of the vote, followed by Vox, which would obtain between 2 and 3 seats and 11.3% support, and Somos Melilla, with 2 seats and 9.3% support.
Technical details
Universe: Population aged over 18 residing in Melilla.
Geographical scope: Autonomous region (Melilla).
Quotas: By sex and age, according to the population distribution by province (INE).
Method of data collection: Computer-assisted telephone interviewing (CATI).
Sample size: 500 interviews.
Questionnaire: Prepared by the client and validated by GAD3.
Margin of error: ±4.5% (n = 500) for a confidence level of 95.5% (two standard deviations) and under the most unfavourable hypothesis of P=Q=0.5, assuming simple random sampling.
Interview duration: Approximately 4–5 minutes.
Fieldwork dates: From 27 to 29 April 2026.
Institute: Gabinete de Análisis Demoscópico, S.L. (GAD3). C/ Hermosilla 8, 1º Dcha., 28001 Madrid, Spain.
