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Voting intention in Colombia
Ahead of the presidential elections in Colombia, a survey conducted by GAD3 for RCN Televisión indicates that 30% of respondents would vote for Iván Cepeda, representing the Historic Pact. He is followed by Abelardo de la Espriella, with 22% support, and Paloma Valencia, the candidate of the Democratic Centre, with 3%.
In the Gran Consulta, which includes nine centre-right candidates, Paloma Valencia emerges as the leading contender with 23% support. She is followed by Vicky Dávila and Juan Manuel Galán, both with 8%. Among left-wing candidates, Iván Cepeda leads voting intention with 34%, followed by Roy Barreras with 4% and Camilo Romero with 3%.
In hypothetical head-to-head scenarios between Cepeda and Abelardo de la Espriella, Sergio Fajardo, Paloma Valencia and Juan Carlos Pinzón, Cepeda would secure around 40% of the vote, compared with results ranging from 32% in the case of De la Espriella to 17% against Pinzón. For his part, Fajardo would defeat Valencia and Pinzón, with 28% and 29% support respectively. However, he would lose to Abelardo de la Espriella by a margin of 13 percentage points, obtaining 19% of the vote.
Technical details
Universe: Residents in Colombia aged 18 and over with the right to vote in the 2026 legislative elections.
Geographical scope: All regions referred to in Article 45 of Law 2056 of 2020, used exclusively for territorial aggregation and the presentation of results, in compliance with the requirements set out in Article 4 of Law 2494 of 2025.
Data collection method: Telephone surveys (CATI) conducted by trained interviewers, using software-assisted interviewing.
Sample size: 1,207 interviews.
Sampling design: Stratified probabilistic sampling by department. Simple random selection of mobile phone numbers with nationwide coverage, until the number of interviews proportional to the population of each department was completed.
Sample weighting: Adjusted by quotas for sex, age groups, socio-economic status and recalled vote in the 2022 presidential elections.
Sampling frame: Territorial selection was carried out proportionally to population size, based on the National Population and Housing Census conducted by DANE. In compliance with Law 2494 of 2025, the sampling design guarantees the inclusion of municipalities and districts with the largest populations, as well as coverage of regionally significant municipalities where no municipality or district has a population equal to or greater than 800,000 inhabitants. This criterion is applied exclusively to ensure adequate territorial representativeness of the study.
Margin of error: ±2.83%, with a 95% confidence level, under the assumption p = q = 0.5 and simple random sampling (n = 1,207). Cross-tabulations by sociodemographic variables reduce the effective sample size; therefore, results should be interpreted with caution.
Fieldwork dates: From 13 to 15 January 2026.
Legal entity conducting the study: GAD3 Colombia S.A.S.
