The latest May poll by GAD3 for ABC offers the following regional election estimates for the region of Murcia and municipal elections in Murcia and Cartagena.
In Murcia, the PP would win between 19-20 seats. The PSOE would reach 14 MPs. Next, Vox would obtain 7-8 seats. Finally, Podemos-IU Verdes-AV would get 3 seats and MC Regional 1 councillor. Ciudadanos would not obtain representation.
You can find more information in the following link: ABC Murcia Survey
Universe: residents in the Region of Murcia with the right to vote.
Scope: regional and municipal.
Quotas: by gender, age and non-proportional geographical allocation.
Data collection procedure: computer-assisted telephone interview (CATI) to landlines and mobiles (50%).
Sample size: 1,150 interviews in total; 400 in Murcia and 550 in Cartagena.
Sampling error: ± 3.2% (n=1,150); ± 5.0% (n=400); ± 4.3% (n=550); for a confidence level of 95.5% (two sigma) and under the worst-case scenario of P=Q=0.5 in the simple random sampling assumption.
Duración de la entrevista: 3-4 minutos aproximadamente.
Fieldwork dates: 26-27 April 2023 and 18 May 2023.