- The latest July barometer by GAD3 for the digital newspaper NIUS and the Mediaset group offers the following electoral estimates if a general election were to be held at this time.
The PSOE would win 24.4% of the vote, with 93 and 97 deputies. The PP would obtain 150-154 seats and 35% of the vote cast. Next, the Vox party would reach 38-40 deputies, with an estimated 13.8% of the vote. Unidas Podemos, would have 20 and 22 seats and 9.7% of the vote. Finally, Ciudadanos would accumulate 2.4% of the total Spanish vote with 3 seats and Ciudadanos, with 1.2% of the vote, would disappear.
You can find all the conclusions of the socio-political survey by clicking on the following link: NIUS
Universe: general population over the age of 18 in Spain.
Quotas: sex, age groups and geographical distribution according to population distribution (INE).
Data collection procedure: computer-assisted online interview (CAWI).
Sample size:1,000 interviews.
Sample error: 3.2% (N=1.00) for a confidence level of 95.5% (two sigma) and under the worst-case scenario of P=Q=0.5 in the simple random sampling assumption.
Interview length: approximately 5 minutes.
Fieldwork dates:12-14 July 2022.