- The latest barometer of September by GAD3 for the digital newspaper NIUS and the Mediaset group offers the following electoral estimation if a general election were to be held at this moment.
The PP would win 34.8% of the vote, with 148-152 deputies. The PSOE would obtain 101-105 seats and 26.2% of the vote cast. Next, the Vox party would reach 36-38 deputies, with an estimated 12.6% of the vote. United Podemos would have 17-19 seats and 9.4% of the vote.
You can find all the conclusions of the socio-political survey by clicking on the following link: NIUS
Universe: general population over the age of 18 in Spain.
Quotas: sex, age groups and geographical distribution according to population distribution (INE).
Data collection procedure: computer-assisted telephone interview (CATI) on mobile phones (518) and landlines (491).
Sample size: 1,009 interviews.
Sampling error: 3.2% (N=1,009) for a confidence level of 95.5% (two sigmas) and under the worst-case scenario of P=Q=0.5 in the simple random sampling assumption.
Duration of the interview: approximately 3-4 minutes.
Fieldwork dates: 19-22 September 2022.