- The latest January barometer by GAD3 for the digital newspaper NIUS and the Mediaset group offers the following electoral estimates if a general election were to be held at this time.
The PP would win 33.2% of the vote, with 140-144 MPs. PSOE would obtain 98-102 seats and 25.9% of the vote cast. Subsequently, the Vox party would reach 45-47 deputies, with an estimated 15.3% of the vote. Unidas Podemos, would obtain 22-24 seats and 10.1% of the vote.
You can find all the conclusions of the socio-political survey at the following link: NIUS
Universe: Residents with the right to vote in Spain.
Quotas: provinces, sex and age groups according to the distribution of the electoral roll.
Data collection procedure: computer-assisted telephone interview (CATI) on mobile phones (521) and landlines (481).
Sample size: 1,002 interviews.
Sampling error: 3.2% (N=1,002) for a confidence level of 95.5% (two sigmas) and under the worst-case scenario of P=Q=0.5 in the simple random sampling assumption.
Duration of the interview: approximately 3-4 minutes.
Fieldwork dates: 28 December to 4 January 2023.