- The latest February barometer by GAD3 for the digital newspaper NIUS and the Mediaset group offers the following electoral estimates if a general election were to be held at this time.
The PSOE would win 31.9% of the vote, with 126-130 MPs. The PP would obtain 87-91 seats and 22.2% of the vote cast. Next, the Vox party would reach 67-71 deputies, with an estimated 18.8% of the vote. Unidas Podemos would have 16-18 seats and 8.8% of the vote. Finally, Ciudadanos would accumulate 3.7% of the total Spanish vote with 3 seats and Mas País would win 2 deputies and 1.4% of the vote.
You can find all the conclusions of the socio-political survey by clicking on the following link: NIUS
Universe: general population over the age of 18 in Spain.
Quotas: sex, age groups and geographical distribution according to population distribution (INE).
Data collection procedure: computer-assisted telephone interview (CATI) on mobile phones (555) and landlines (446).
Sample size: 1,001 interviews.
Sample error:3.2% (N=1,001) for a confidence level of 95.5% (two sigma) and under the worst-case scenario of P=Q=0.5 under the assumption of simple random sampling.
Interview length: approximately 5 minutes.
Fieldwork dates:14-17 February 2022.