- GAD3’s electoral survey for NIUS on the elections to the Castilla y León Parliament on 13 February offers the following estimates:
The Partido Popular would win 39.2% of the vote and between 37 and 39 seats. The PSOEwould obtain 30 seats and 31.8% of the vote cast. Vox would obtain 10 seats, with an estimated 12.1% of the vote. Ciudadanos would obtain 0-1 seats and 4.2% of the vote. Podemos would achieve an estimated 4.3% of the vote but would not win a seat. In the case of Unión del Pueblo Leonés, would win between 1 and 2 seats with an estimated 2.8% of the vote. Por Ávila would be left with 0.4% of the vote and Soria ¡Ya! would enter with 1 seat and 0.7% of the vote. Izquierda Unida would not make it in, with 0.8% of the vote cast, just as it would Pacma, who would take 0.5% of the vote.
You can find more detailed information about the survey at the following link: NIUS
Universe: residents with the right to vote in Castilla y León
Scope: Autonomous Community.
Quotas: Provinces, sex and age groups according to polling station distribution.
Sample size:1,000 interviews (499 mobile and 501 fixed) distributed proportionally in each of the provinces according to the electoral census (INE).
Data collection procedure: computer-assisted telephone interview (CATI) on mobile and landline phones.
Sampling error:±3.2% (n=1,000) for a confidence level of 95.5% (two sigma) and under the worst-case scenario of P=Q=0.5 under the assumption of simple random sampling.
Interview length: 3-4 minutes.
Dates of fieldwork:20-22 December