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The GAD3 survey points out who are the candidates most likely to become mayors.
With 20 days to go until the regional elections in Colombia, GAD3 has carried out a pre-election survey where you can see who are the favourites in five different cities: Bogotá, Bucaramanga, Cali, Medellín and Barranquilla.
In the case of Bogotá, Carlos Fernando Galán continues to be the candidate with the most support, having increased by almost 5 points in the last month, garnering 37.2% of the votes. In Medellín, Federico Gutiérrez has a margin of almost 56 points over second place candidate Juan Carlos Upegui. Continuing with the list, in Cali, Roberto Ortiz and Alejandro Eder close the gap to 38.7% for the former and 25.5% for the latter. In Barranquilla, Alejandro Char won first place with 76.4% support. Finally, in Bucaramanga, second and third place are very close, with Carlos Parra 14.5% and Horacio José Serpa 14.2%.
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You can consult all the conclusions of the socio-political survey at the following link: https://www.noticiasrcn.com/elecciones/candidatos-que-lideran-encuestas-en-urbes-principales-455542RCN
Legal entity that carried it out: GAD3 Colombia SAS.
Legal entity that commissioned it: RCN Televisión S.A.
Financing source: RCN Televisión S.A.
Type of sample and procedure used to select the sample units: Random selection of interviewees with compliance with quotas by sex and age and geographical quotas. Proportional allocation within each of the five municipalities under study.
Sample size: ≈400 interviews per municipality: Bogotá, Medellín, Cali, Barranquilla and Bucaramanga. Total: 2,021 interviews.
Study topic: Pre-electoral study in five municipalities in Colombia.
Specific questions asked: 13 in the case of Bogotá and 10 in the rest of the municipalities. The questionnaire is attached.
Area (geographical universe and population universe): Municipal scope. Residents entitled to vote in Bogotá, Medellín, Cali, Barranquilla and Bucaramanga.
Technique used for sample selection: Computer-assisted telephone interviewing (CATI) of mobile phones in Colombia.
Collection date: 29 September to 5 October 2023, a.i.
Margin of error: ± 5.0% (n=400) for a degree of confidence of 95.5% (two sigmas) and in the worst case scenario of P=Q=0.5 under the assumption of simple random sampling.
Statistician who designed the research: Doctor Narciso Michavila Núñez.
Sampling distribution:
