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Following the regional elections in Castile and León, the GAD3 survey for ABC produced the following estimate.
Ahead of the regional elections in Castile and León held on 15 March, the voting intention poll conducted by GAD3 for ABC in March 2026 placed the Partido Popular as the most voted party. The party was projected to secure between 33 and 34 seats and 34.8% of the vote. The PSOE would rank second with between 26 and 29 seats and 28.6% support, while Vox would obtain between 16 and 18 seats and 19.5% of the vote.
Next would be Unión del Pueblo Leonés (UPL), with 3 representatives and 5.4%. Finally, Soria ¡YA! would secure 1 seat and 1.1%.
Below, we present the regional accuracy charts:
By seats:
By % of support:
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Regional seat estimate by province
Thanks to the 1,002 people of Castile and León for their honesty. Our accuracy is yours.
Technical Details:
Universe: Residents in Castile and León with the right to vote.
Geographical scope: Regional (Castile and León).
Quotas: By sex and age. Non-proportional allocation by province.
Data collection procedure: Computer-assisted telephone interviewing (CATI).
Sample size: 1,002 interviews.
Questionnaire: Designed by the client and validated by GAD3.
Margin of error: ±3.2% (n = 1,002) at a 95% confidence level (two sigma), under the most unfavourable assumption of p = q = 0.5, assuming simple random sampling.
Interview duration: Less than 5 minutes.
Fieldwork dates: 2 to 4 March 2026.
Institute: Gabinete de Análisis Demoscópico, S.L. (GAD3). C/ Alcalá 75 – 4th floor left, 28009 – Madrid.
