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The GAD3 survey for ABC gives the following estimation of seats and percentage of the vote in the European election
On the occasion of the last European elections, GAD3 carried out a barometer commissioned by ABC. This barometer predicted 23-24 seats for the Popular Party and 34.9% of the vote, 20 for the PSOE and 29.8% of the support. VOX would obtain three MEPs and 9.7% of the votes, Sumar in fourth place would obtain between 3 and 4 seats and 5.9%. Next, Ahora Repúblicas would get 3 seats and 4.8% of the votes, Podemos would get 2 seats and 3.5% of the votes. Finally, Lliures per Europa, Se acabó la fiesta and CEUS would obtain one seat each.
Technical data:
Universe: general population over 18 years of age with the right to vote.
Scope: national.
Quotas: by sex, age and geographical area according to the distribution of the electoral roll.
Information collection procedure: Computer-assisted telephone interview (CATI).
Sample size: 1,005 interviews.
Sampling error: 3.2% (n=1,005) for a confidence level of 95.5% (two sigmas) and in the worst case scenario of P=Q=0.5 under the assumption of simple random sampling.
Interview duration: 4 minutes.
Fieldwork dates: May 27 to 30, 2024.
