- GAD3’s electoral survey for El Norte de Castilla on the elections to the Castilla y León parliament on 13 February offers the following estimates:
The Partido Popular would win 39.2% of the vote and between 37 and 39 seats. The PSOE party would obtain 28-29 seats and 29.8% of the vote cast. Voxwould obtain 9-10 seats, with an estimated 13.5% of the vote. Ciudadanoswould get between 1 seat and 4.5% of the vote. Podemoswould obtain an estimated 4.9% of the vote and would win 1 seat. In the case of Unión del Pueblo Leonés, would win between 2 seats with an estimated 2.9% of the vote. Por Ávila would be left with 0.4% of the vote and Soria ¡Ya! would enter with 1 seat and 0.7% of the vote. Izquierda Unida would not make it in, with 0.7% of the vote cast, just as it would Pacma, who would get 0.4% of the vote.
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You can find more detailed information on the survey, on the following link: El Norte de Castilla
Fact sheet
Universe: residents with the right to vote in Castilla y León
Scope: regional. (Autonomous Community.)
Quotas: provinces, sex and age groups according to polling station distribution.
Sample size: 1,000 interviews (451 mobile and 549 fixed) distributed proportionally in each of the provinces according to the electoral census (INE).
Data collection procedure: computer-assisted telephone interview (CATI) on mobile and landline phones.
Sampling error:±3.2% (n=1,000) for a confidence level of 95.5% (two sigma) and under the worst-case scenario of P=Q=0.5 under the assumption of simple random sampling.
Interview length: 3-4 minutes.
Fieldwork dates: 22-23 December
