Overall assessment of results: Castile and León
By Javier Ciria and Paulino Mata · Head of Research and Communications Consultant at GAD3.
The results in Castile and León broadly confirm the trends observed in Extremadura and Aragon, although they include significant specific features stemming from the region’s structurally conservative profile, which raises the electoral ‘ceiling’ for the right.
In this context, there has been no electoral upset, but rather a moderate shift in the political balance: the PP wins and strengthens its position, the PSOE holds up better than expected, and Vox grows, albeit below the expectations generated during the campaign. The final result stands at 33 seats for the PP, 30 for the PSOE and 14 for Vox.
From a structural perspective, the analysis reveals two major trends. On the one hand, the strengthening of the Partido Popular, which has consolidated its dominance on the right, attracting traditional voters and bringing order to that political bloc. On the other hand, there are the limitations on Vox’s growth, which started from an already very high level in 2022, thereby restricting its scope for expansion. Although the party manages to slightly exceed its previous ceiling (233,757 votes compared to 230,000 in 2019), this is marginal growth that confirms its electoral maturity and the difficulty of expanding its base.
Factor analysis: Rural vote
The PSOE has managed to hold its ground better than expected thanks to several factors. Firstly, it has a well-established regional leadership that is relatively detached from national politics, which acts as a buffer against the central government’s loss of support.
Secondly, it has succeeded in concentrating the tactical vote within the left-wing spectrum. The data on vote transfer shows that the PSOE is retaining its electorate well and capturing part of the vote from the alternative left, in a context where IU and Podemos are running in a weakened state.
Added to this is an increase in turnout in key provinces that has not resulted in a decline for the Socialists. In this sense, rather than growth, it is more accurate to speak of stabilisation following the low point reached in 2022.
Factor Analysis: The Resilience of the PSOE
This shift is best understood through the lens of sociology and, more specifically, through the theories of Eva Illouz. It is not a retreat into the private sphere. It is not that Spanish cinema has abandoned the social in favour of personal angst. Rather, it is that many of the structural tensions of our time are expressed through the language of emotional life. The family, the couple, communication, identity and fragility are not here minor issues or apolitical refuges; they are the spaces where inequalities, dependencies and very specific ways of experiencing the present are condensed. The social does not disappear: it changes scale.
Factor analysis: The performance of Vox
Vox has seen growth, but this is clearly lower than anticipated. It was already building on strong results from 2022 (201,065 votes), which limited its scope for improvement. Although it has managed to slightly exceed its previous high, its progress is modest.
This performance is partly due to a better organisation of the right-wing political landscape around the PP, which absorbs some of Vox’s potential growth. Furthermore, the electoral and territorial system of Castile and León penalises parties with uneven representation across provinces, which contributes to Vox remaining at 14 seats, below some previous projections.
Factor analysis: Impact of parties without representation
Parties without representation have a significant impact on voting efficiency.
On the right, parties such as Se Acabó la Fiesta (SALF) introduce elements of dispersion and can reduce Vox’s margin in close provinces, as seen in Zamora. On the left, however, the weakness of IU and Podemos has encouraged the concentration of the vote on the PSOE, strengthening its resilience rather than fragmenting the political landscape.
Factor analysis: The youth vote
The youth vote has been one of the main driving forces behind Vox. According to data from our survey, the party ranks as the leading force among voters aged 18 to 24 and also leads among those aged 25 to 34.
However, this momentum faces a structural constraint: lower turnout among young people compared to older age groups. Among those aged 65 and over, the PP clearly dominates, and this segment—which is larger and more mobilised—has been decisive in the final result.
Conclusion
The results in Castile and León confirm a scenario of competitive stability, in which there are no disruptive changes, but rather an internal realignment of political blocs. The Popular Party consolidates its position as the dominant force on the right, strengthening its ability to mobilise the conservative vote, whilst Vox shows signs of reaching an electoral ceiling in a context where its scope for growth is diminishing.
On the left, the PSOE demonstrates significant resilience, based on the concentration of the tactical vote and regional leadership that mitigates national decline. Rather than making gains, the party manages to halt its decline and stabilise its position, which proves decisive in a tight race.
From a broader perspective, the results show that voting behaviour in Castile and León continues to follow clear structural patterns: the decisive influence of the rural vote, greater volatility in urban areas, and a decisive impact of varying turnout rates across age groups.
In short, we are not witnessing a change in the political cycle, but rather the consolidation of a political equilibrium in which the blocs remain stable, albeit with internal adjustments that may foreshadow future dynamics. The key, from now on, will be to observe whether the PP manages to extend its structural lead, whether Vox manages to break through its current ceiling and, in particular, whether the PSOE is capable of transforming its resilience into growth in future elections.
